Monday, August 12, 2013
Blue Jasmine
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Oscar Night 2013 - This Might Get Bumpy
- Amour
- Argo
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Django Unchained
- Les Miserables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Predicted winner: Argo
- If I was voting: Amour
Possible upsets: Silver Linings PlaybookAnalysis: The momentum that Argo's picked up in recent months has been staggering. While an early favorite for an Oscar nomination out of the gate, this was one that I thought wouldn't really have the chops to compete against the likes of films like Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, and Silver Linings Playbook. After picking up wins at the Golden Globes, Director's Guild, Producer's Guild, and BAFTAs, thinking that anything else is going to win at this juncture is pretty foolish. That said, if the Academy's feeling sentimental, I could see them pull a Saving Private Ryan and give the prize to Silver Linings Playbook. The difference, of course, is that Shakespeare in Love deserved that one.
Directing
- "Amour" - Michael Haneke
- "Beasts of the Southern Wild" - Benh Zeitlin
- "Life of Pi" - Ang Lee
- "Lincoln" - Steven Spielberg
- "Silver Linings Playbook" - David O. Russell
- Predicted winner: Ang Lee
- If I was voting: Michael Haneke
Possible upsets: Steven Spielberg, Michael Haneke, David O. RussellAnalysis: Predicting this category's made more difficult than it ought to be by the absence of one man than it is by the actual presence of any of the nominees. Most of the circuit has given Ben Affleck the top directorial prize, despite his lack of a corresponding Oscar nomination. That really throws a monkey wrench in the proceedings, because it wouldn't ordinarily make a lot of sense to pick against Steven Spielberg, particularly when his film's got a league-leading 12 nominations. However, Affleck's DGA win really hurts the two frontrunners, Spielberg and Ang Lee more than anyone else. Personally, I like the scenario in which they split enough of the vote to allow Michael Haneke through, even though I think that's unlikely. Ultimately though, I think the DGA thing hurts Spielberg more than it hurts Lee, and I think he'll be pick up Oscar #2.
Actor in a Leading Role
- Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook"
- Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln"
- Hugh Jackman in "Les Miserables"
- Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
- Denzel Washington in "Flight"
Predicted winner: Daniel Day-Lewis - If I was voting: Daniel Day-Lewis
Possible upsets: Hugh Jackman, Denzel Washington (with the slightest of outside chances)Analysis: It seems like every time Daniel Day-Lewis is up for Oscar, I'm sitting here telling you that he's going to win, and nobody else has a chance. Not much else different this year. I think that, if anyone's really going to threaten, it's Jackman with a tiny hint of a threat from Denzel Washington. That said, if Day-Lewis doesn't win the prize, something's deeply wrong here. His work in Lincoln was staggering in the epic simplicity of its scope and the deeply heartfelt rendering of the character. This one is (and should be) his to lose.
Actress in a Leading Role
- Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
- Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook"
- Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
- Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
- Naomi Watts in "The Impossible"
- Predicted winner: Jennifer Lawrence
- If I was voting: Emmanuelle Riva
Possible upsets: Emmanuelle Riva, Jessica ChastainAnalysis: This was seen originally to be a Lawrence/Chastain race, but Jennifer Lawrence has been picking up the majority of awards on the circuit to this point, and I really think that she's going to go all the way tonight. Now, she's a fine actress, and I liked her work in Silver Linings Playbook, but I think that the standout performance in that film was easily Bradley Cooper's. Personally, I think this award should go to either Emmanuelle Riva or Quvenzhané Wallis. Riva's work is devastatingly nuanced in a piece that hurts, and was one of the single best bits of acting I've ever seen. To give the prize to Jennifer Lawrence tonight is a big mistake. That's not taking something away from Lawrence. She's a fine actress and has a long, successful career ahead of her. Riva is probably nearing the end of her career (if this isn't her final performance), and gave one of the performances of the young century. In 5 years, I think it's clear which performance will still resonate. Both actresses are playing good tunes, it's just that Riva's playing a symphony. That said, it is her birthday tonight, so the Academy might just lean her way.Actor in a Supporting Role
- Alan Arkin in "Argo"
- Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook"
- Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
- Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln"
- Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"
- Predicted winner: Robert De Niro
- If I was voting: Tommy Lee Jones
Possible upsets: Tommy Lee Jones, Christoph WaltzAnalysis: This one is one of the single toughest categories to predict. My personal favorite, Tommy Lee Jones, has a good chance, but I don't think he'll be able to overcome the fact that Robert De Niro actually found a project that he liked enough to actually try to give a good performance. I'm also not ruling out Christoph Waltz. I'm really glad that he was the sole actor recognized for work in Django Unchained. A lot of people thought that DiCaprio would be the main contender from that thoroughly distasteful exercise in sadism, but I think that the Academy made the right choice.Actress in a Supporting Role
- Amy Adams in "The Master"
- Sally Field in "Lincoln"
- Anne Hathaway in "Les Miserables"
- Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
- Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"
- Predicted winner: Anne Hathaway
- If I was voting: Anne Hathaway
Possible upsets: None.Analysis: I think this one's a done deal, folks, and it's well deserved. Her performance is fantastic.
- Animated Feature Film: Wreck-it-Ralph
- Art Direction: Anna Karenina
- Cinematography: Life of Pi
- Costume Design: Anna Karenina
- Documentary (Feature): Searching for Sugar Man (I'd be remiss if I didn't give a shout out to The Invisible War, for which my friend Doug Blush was an editor. They just won the Independent Spirit Award for Best Documentary last night!
- Documentary (Short Subject): Open Heart
- Film Editing: Argo
- Foreign Language Film: Amour
- Makeup: Les Miserables
- Music (Original Score): Life of Pi
- Music (Original Song): Skyfall
- Short Film (Animated): Paperman
- Short Film (Live Action): Asad
- Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
- Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
- Visual Effects: Life of Pi
- Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Silver Linings Playbook (but keep an eye on Argo)
- Writing (Original Screenplay): Amour (but keep an eye on Django Unchained. Amour is a long shot, but I have a feeling)
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Podcasting: Zero Dark Thirty
- Aaron Neuwirth of The Code Is Zeek and Why So Blu?
- Abraham Moua of The Walrus Moose
- Jose Cordova of The Thoughtful Slacker
- Mark Johnson of The Awards Circuit
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Oscar Night 2012: Shhhhhhhhhh. . .

I am reminded today of a song by Marshall Mathers. Opens with "Guess who's back, back again . . ." However, instead of the next line referring to one Slim Shady, the version I've got whizzing around is all about Billy Crystal.
Yep, kids. Daddy's home.
Predictions coming right up. . .
Best Picture
- "The Artist" Thomas Langmann, Producer
- "The Descendants" Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
- "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" Scott Rudin, Producer
- "The Help" Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
- "Hugo" Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
- "Midnight in Paris" Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
- "Moneyball" Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
- "The Tree of Life" Sarah Green, Bill Pohlad, Dede Gardner and Grant Hill, Producers
- "War Horse" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
- Predicted winner: The Artist
If I was voting: The Tree of Life
Possible upsets: The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight In ParisAnalysis: After a monster of a coming-out party at Cannes last May, The Artist hasn't looked back, going on to that rare mix of critical and popular acclaim. Personally, I thought it was fine, but had some issues with the third act. I liked it, but couldn't really be bothered to go any further than that. On the other hand, The Tree of Life moved me to my soul with its combination of soaring visual sweep and thematic profundity. I think it's easily the best film of 2011, and deserves to walk off this award, without much of a second thought. There's also a theory that Midnight In Paris might squeak through. (which would make me ridiculously happy!) That said, I don't think that the juggernaut that is a little silent French period piece is going to be stopped.
Prepare yourself, I think this is going to be the evening's recurrent theme.Directing
- "The Artist" Michel Hazanavicius
- "The Descendants" Alexander Payne
- "Hugo" Martin Scorsese
- "Midnight in Paris" Woody Allen
- "The Tree of Life" Terrence Malick
- Predicted winner: Michel Hazanavicius
If I was voting: Terrence Malick
Possible upsets: Martin ScorseseAnalysis: This year has some really strong contenders, but Hazanavicius has the Director's Guild Award. Surely you must remember how many times I have lectured you about that? DGA (almost 100% of the time) = Oscar. Personally, I think Terrence Malick's work in The Tree of Life was far and away the best work of any director this year, but the fact that he was nominated at all is a small miracle in and of itself. The only real threat I see is Scorsese who, despite my issues with certain inert performances and lackluster narrative choices in Hugo, directed a visually dazzling film.Actor in a Leading Role
- Demián Bichir in "A Better Life"
- George Clooney in "The Descendants"
- Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"
- Gary Oldman in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
- Brad Pitt in "Moneyball"
Predicted winner: Jean Dujardin If I was voting:
Possible upsets: George ClooneyAnalysis: After the host of awards that Jean Dujardin has picked up, I think this one's his to lose. Clooney's a definite threat, as he's been quietly running neck-in-neck with Dujardin throughout the season. Despite that, I think Dujardin's charm on and off camera is going to be too much for anyone else to overcome.Actress in a Leading Role
- Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs"
- Viola Davis in "The Help"
- Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
- Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"
- Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn"
- Predicted winner: Viola Davis
If I was voting: Rooney Mara
Possible upsets: Meryl StreepAnalysis: Viola Davis has been the favorite for a while, but she ought to watch her back. Though Davis has won the lion's share of trophies, Meryl Streep is right on her heels. What's more, Streep scored both the BAFTA and Golden Globe this year. While those don't necessarily have a direct correlation to who wins the Oscar, it's a definite indication that the door's open. Personally, I was very surprised when Davis to Penelope Cruz in 2008, and I think this is her year to take Oscar home . . . but keep an eye on the barroom door.Actor in a Supporting Role
- Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn"
- Jonah Hill in "Moneyball"
- Nick Nolte in "Warrior"
- Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"
- Max von Sydow in "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
- Predicted winner: Christopher Plummer
If I was voting: Kenneth Branagh
Possible upsets: Max von SydowAnalysis: The fact that this year's seen legendary actors Max von Sydow and Christopher Plummer's respective first and second Oscar nominations is a remarkable thing. What's more, Plummer's first nomination came three years ago. THREE. Wow. This one's a pretty sure thing. Max von Sydow might have a tiny outside chance, but this one's going to Captain von Trapp.Actress in a Supporting Role
- Bérénice Bejo in "The Artist"
- Jessica Chastain in "The Help"
- Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids"
- Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs"
- Octavia Spencer in "The Help"
- Predicted winner: Octavia Spencer
If I was voting: Bérénice Bejo
Possible upsets: None.Analysis: I think this one's a done deal, folks.
Here's the rest . . .
- Animated Feature Film: Rango
- Art Direction: Hugo - Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
- Cinematography: The Tree of Life - Emmanuel Lubezki
- Costume Design: Jane Eyre - Michael O'Connor
- Documentary (Feature): Pina - Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel (but keep your eye on Hell and Back Again)
- Documentary (Short Subject): Saving Face
- Film Editing: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
- Foreign Language Film: A Separation (this is so much of a done deal it's not even funny, but I would be remiss if I didn't give a shout out to my friend Phillippe Falardeau, nominated for Monseiur Lazhar. I'm so excited for him tonight!)
- Makeup: Albert Nobbs - Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
- Music (Original Score): Hugo - Howard Shore
- Music (Original Song): Man or Muppet - Bret McKenzie
- Short Film (Animated): The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore - William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
- Short Film (Live Action): The Shore - Terry George and Oorlagh George
- Sound Editing: Transformers: Dark of the Moon - Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
- Sound Mixing: Transformers: Dark of the Moon - Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
- Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
- Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Descendants - Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
- Writing (Original Screenplay): Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen
So, will Woody show up? Will there be any big upsets? Will you actually win any money this year? We'll see.
The reason I started watching the Oscars is fairly straightforward. Every year on Oscar night as a child, my mother would flip on the television, and we'd watch the pre-show and some of the awards. I remember the year Beauty and the Beast (which would later become her favorite film, and one of mine) didn't win and we were disappointed. I remember the year that Titanic fever swept the nation. I remember there being so many of those nights. It's fair to say that this tradition (along with a movie every Friday afternoon for years) is one of the foundations of my love of the movies.
I owe that to her, and I will be thinking of her tonight.
