Oscar Night 2013 - This Might Get Bumpy

This year's Oscar telecast will be met by a lot of uncertainty. Traditionally, the race solidifies into a pretty straightforward running order by this point, with eventual winners and also-rans clearly labeled. There are a plethora of categories this time around that are shrouded in mystery, and while I like my predictions/chances, I wouldn't be surprised if a handful of them turned out to be inaccurate. The writing categories, in particular, are particularly tough to predict . . . not to mention the strangest directorial race we've seen in years!

For my money, Emmanuelle Riva and Daniel Day-Lewis are the two titans this year that deserve the lion's share of the spoils. I'd also like to give some love to Quvenzhané Wallis. Her performance is the stuff that legends are made of. I work with kids, and, believe you me, most six year olds just aren't capable of stuff like that. 

I'll be interested to see what Seth MacFarlane does as host. While almost anything is better than the Franco/Hathaway debacle, I like my Family Guy in bits here and there and have a tough time sitting through an entire episode, and I hope that he doesn't take things too far in an attempt to be "edgy." 

Best Picture

• Amour
• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty

• Predicted winner: Argo
• If I was voting: Amour
  Possible upsets: Silver Linings Playbook
  Analysis: The momentum that Argo's picked up in recent months has been staggering. While an early favorite for an Oscar nomination out of the gate, this was one that I thought wouldn't really have the chops to compete against the likes of films like Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, and Silver Linings Playbook. After picking up wins at the Golden Globes, Director's Guild, Producer's Guild, and BAFTAs, thinking that anything else is going to win at this juncture is pretty foolish. That said, if the Academy's feeling sentimental, I could see them pull a Saving Private Ryan and give the prize to Silver Linings Playbook. The difference, of course, is that Shakespeare in Love deserved that one.
  
  

  
  
  
  

  Directing

• "Amour" - Michael Haneke
• "Beasts of the Southern Wild" - Benh Zeitlin
• "Life of Pi" - Ang Lee
• "Lincoln" - Steven Spielberg
• "Silver Linings Playbook" - David O. Russell

• Predicted winner: Ang Lee
• If I was voting: Michael Haneke
  Possible upsets: Steven Spielberg, Michael Haneke, David O. Russell
  Analysis: Predicting this category's made more difficult than it ought to be by the absence of one man than it is by the actual presence of any of the nominees. Most of the circuit has given Ben Affleck the top directorial prize, despite his lack of a corresponding Oscar nomination. That really throws a monkey wrench in the proceedings, because it wouldn't ordinarily make a lot of sense to pick against Steven Spielberg, particularly when his film's got a league-leading 12 nominations. However, Affleck's DGA win really hurts the two frontrunners, Spielberg and Ang Lee more than anyone else. Personally, I like the scenario in which they split enough of the vote to allow Michael Haneke through, even though I think that's unlikely. Ultimately though, I think the DGA thing hurts Spielberg more than it hurts Lee, and I think he'll be pick up Oscar #2.
  
  

  
  
  
  

  Actor in a Leading Role

• Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook"
• Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln"
• Hugh Jackman in "Les Miserables"
• Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
• Denzel Washington in "Flight"
  
  Predicted winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
• If I was voting: Daniel Day-Lewis
  Possible upsets: Hugh Jackman, Denzel Washington (with the slightest of outside chances)
  Analysis: It seems like every time Daniel Day-Lewis is up for Oscar, I'm sitting here telling you that he's going to win, and nobody else has a chance. Not much else different this year. I think that, if anyone's really going to threaten, it's Jackman with a tiny hint of a threat from Denzel Washington. That said, if Day-Lewis doesn't win the prize, something's deeply wrong here. His work in Lincoln was staggering in the epic simplicity of its scope and the deeply heartfelt rendering of the character. This one is (and should be) his to lose.
  

  
  

  Actress in a Leading Role

• Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
• Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook"
• Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
• Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
• Naomi Watts in "The Impossible"

• Predicted winner: Jennifer Lawrence
• If I was voting: Emmanuelle Riva
  Possible upsets: Emmanuelle Riva, Jessica Chastain
  Analysis: This was seen originally to be a Lawrence/Chastain race, but Jennifer Lawrence has been picking up the majority of awards on the circuit to this point, and I really think that she's going to go all the way tonight. Now, she's a fine actress, and I liked her work in Silver Linings Playbook, but I think that the standout performance in that film was  easily Bradley Cooper's. Personally, I think this award should go to either Emmanuelle Riva or Quvenzhané Wallis. Riva's work is devastatingly nuanced in a piece that hurts, and was one of the single best bits of acting I've ever seen. To give the prize to Jennifer Lawrence tonight is a big mistake. That's not taking something away from Lawrence. She's a fine actress and has a long, successful career ahead of her. Riva is probably nearing the end of her career (if this isn't her final performance), and gave one of the performances of the young century. In 5 years, I think it's clear which performance will  still resonate. Both actresses are playing good tunes, it's just that Riva's playing a symphony. That said, it is her birthday tonight, so the Academy might just lean her way.
  
  
  Actor in a Supporting Role

• Alan Arkin in "Argo"
• Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook"
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
• Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln"
• Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"

• Predicted winner: Robert De Niro
• If I was voting: Tommy Lee Jones
  Possible upsets: Tommy Lee Jones, Christoph Waltz
  Analysis: This one is one of the single toughest categories to predict. My personal favorite, Tommy Lee Jones, has a good chance, but I don't think he'll be able to overcome the fact that Robert De Niro actually found a project that he liked enough to actually try to give a good performance. I'm also not ruling out Christoph Waltz. I'm really glad that he was the sole actor recognized for work in Django Unchained. A lot of people thought that DiCaprio would be the main contender from that thoroughly distasteful exercise in sadism, but I think that the Academy made the right choice. 
  
  
  Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams in "The Master"
• Sally Field in "Lincoln"
• Anne Hathaway in "Les Miserables"
• Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
• Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"

• Predicted winner: Anne Hathaway
• If I was voting: Anne Hathaway
  Possible upsets: None.
  Analysis: I think this one's a done deal, folks, and it's well deserved. Her performance is fantastic. 

Here's the rest . . .

• Animated Feature Film: Wreck-it-Ralph
• Art Direction: Anna Karenina
• Cinematography: Life of Pi
• Costume Design: Anna Karenina
• Documentary (Feature): Searching for Sugar Man (I'd be remiss if I didn't give a shout out to The Invisible War, for which my friend Doug Blush was an editor. They just won the Independent Spirit Award for Best Documentary last night!
• Documentary (Short Subject): Open Heart
• Film Editing: Argo
• Foreign Language Film: Amour
• Makeup: Les Miserables
• Music (Original Score): Life of Pi
• Music (Original Song): Skyfall
• Short Film (Animated): Paperman
• Short Film (Live Action): Asad
• Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
• Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
• Visual Effects: Life of Pi
• Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Silver Linings Playbook (but keep an eye on Argo)
• Writing (Original Screenplay): Amour (but keep an eye on Django Unchained. Amour is a long shot, but I have a feeling)

Above all though, I'm just happy that it's Oscar night. This is one of my favorite events of my year, and there are a lot of memories that go along with the territory. Mostly tonight, I'll be thinking of my mother, who was the one who used to turn the TV on every year even when we were too little to understand exactly what was going on. Love always.

Podcasting: Zero Dark Thirty

Good news! I thought that I was going to miss out on Out Now With Aaron and Abe's discussion of Zero Dark Thirty due to Sundance, but good fortune was on my side! I'm very glad to have been able to be a part of this one. The shownotes, in particular, are a veritable treasure trove of interesting bits of information. Make sure you take the time to check them out. 

You can listen to the entire podcast by clicking HERE to go to the episode's official page or by clicking the big ol' play button below. This discussion had a particularly good vibe. We were not only able to go into detail on the film, but also took the time to talk about Sundance/Slamdance as well as the upcoming Academy Awards.

Don't forget to share/post/link/tweet or whatever it is you do with things you like. Enjoy!

This episode features: 

• Aaron Neuwirth of The Code Is Zeek and Why So Blu?
• Abraham Moua of The Walrus Moose
• Jose Cordova of The Thoughtful Slacker
• Mark Johnson of The Awards Circuit

Oscar Night 2012: Shhhhhhhhhh. . .

I am reminded today of a song by Marshall Mathers. Opens with "Guess who's back, back again . . ." However, instead of the next line referring to one Slim Shady, the version I've got whizzing around is all about Billy Crystal.

Yep, kids. Daddy's home.

After the debacle that was the Franco/Hathaway experiment, the Academy's decided to bring Billy back for his ninth turn as the host of the year's biggest award show. You heard right. NINE. Called it last year too, if you recall.

Predictions coming right up. . .

Best Picture

• "The Artist" Thomas Langmann, Producer
• "The Descendants" Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
• "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" Scott Rudin, Producer
• "The Help" Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
• "Hugo" Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
• "Midnight in Paris" Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
• "Moneyball" Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
• "The Tree of Life" Sarah Green, Bill Pohlad, Dede Gardner and Grant Hill, Producers
• "War Horse" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers

• Predicted winner: The Artist

• If I was voting: The Tree of Life
  Possible upsets: The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight In Paris
  

  Analysis: After a monster of a coming-out party at Cannes last May, The Artist hasn't looked back, going on to that rare mix of critical and popular acclaim. Personally, I thought it was fine, but had some issues with the third act. I liked it, but couldn't really be bothered to go any further than that. On the other hand, The Tree of Life moved me to my soul with its combination of soaring visual sweep and thematic profundity. I think it's easily the best film of 2011, and deserves to walk off this award, without much of a second thought. There's also a theory that Midnight In Paris might squeak through. (which would make me ridiculously happy!) That said, I don't think that the juggernaut that is a little silent French period piece is going to be stopped.
  
  Prepare yourself, I think this is going to be the evening's recurrent theme.

  
  

  Directing

• "The Artist" Michel Hazanavicius
• "The Descendants" Alexander Payne
• "Hugo" Martin Scorsese
• "Midnight in Paris" Woody Allen
• "The Tree of Life" Terrence Malick

• Predicted winner: Michel Hazanavicius

• If I was voting: Terrence Malick
  Possible upsets: Martin Scorsese
  

  Analysis: This year has some really strong contenders, but Hazanavicius has the Director's Guild Award. Surely you must remember how many times I have lectured you about that? DGA (almost 100% of the time) = Oscar. Personally, I think Terrence Malick's work in The Tree of Life was far and away the best work of any director this year, but the fact that he was nominated at all is a small miracle in and of itself. The only real threat I see is Scorsese who, despite my issues with certain inert performances and lackluster narrative choices in Hugo, directed a visually dazzling film.

  
  

  Actor in a Leading Role

• Demián Bichir in "A Better Life"
• George Clooney in "The Descendants"
• Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"
• Gary Oldman in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
• Brad Pitt in "Moneyball"
  
  Predicted winner: Jean Dujardin

• If I was voting:
  Possible upsets: George Clooney
  

  Analysis: After the host of awards that Jean Dujardin has picked up, I think this one's his to lose. Clooney's a definite threat, as he's been quietly running neck-in-neck with Dujardin throughout the season. Despite that, I think Dujardin's charm on and off camera is going to be too much for anyone else to overcome.
  
  

  Actress in a Leading Role

• Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs"
• Viola Davis in "The Help"
• Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
• Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"
• Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn"

• Predicted winner: Viola Davis

• If I was voting: Rooney Mara
  Possible upsets: Meryl Streep
  

  Analysis: Viola Davis has been the favorite for a while, but she ought to watch her back. Though Davis has won the lion's share of trophies, Meryl Streep is right on her heels. What's more, Streep scored both the BAFTA and Golden Globe this year. While those don't necessarily have a direct correlation to who wins the Oscar, it's a definite indication that the door's open. Personally, I was very surprised when Davis to Penelope Cruz in 2008, and I think this is her year to take Oscar home . . . but keep an eye on the barroom door.
  
  
  Actor in a Supporting Role

• Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn"
• Jonah Hill in "Moneyball"
• Nick Nolte in "Warrior"
• Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"
• Max von Sydow in "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

• Predicted winner: Christopher Plummer

• If I was voting: Kenneth Branagh
  Possible upsets: Max von Sydow
  

  Analysis: The fact that this year's seen legendary actors Max von Sydow and Christopher Plummer's respective first and second Oscar nominations is a remarkable thing. What's more, Plummer's first nomination came three years ago. THREE. Wow. This one's a pretty sure thing. Max von Sydow might have a tiny outside chance, but this one's going to Captain von Trapp.
  
  
  Actress in a Supporting Role

• Bérénice Bejo in "The Artist"
• Jessica Chastain in "The Help"
• Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids"
• Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs"
• Octavia Spencer in "The Help"

• Predicted winner: Octavia Spencer

• If I was voting: Bérénice Bejo
  Possible upsets: None.
  

  Analysis: I think this one's a done deal, folks.
  

Here's the rest . . .

• Animated Feature Film: Rango
• Art Direction: Hugo - Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
• Cinematography: The Tree of Life - Emmanuel Lubezki
• Costume Design: Jane Eyre - Michael O'Connor
• Documentary (Feature): Pina - Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel (but keep your eye on Hell and Back Again)
• Documentary (Short Subject): Saving Face
• Film Editing: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
• Foreign Language Film: A Separation (this is so much of a done deal it's not even funny, but I would be remiss if I didn't give a shout out to my friend Phillippe Falardeau, nominated for Monseiur Lazhar. I'm so excited for him tonight!)
• Makeup: Albert Nobbs - Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
• Music (Original Score): Hugo - Howard Shore
• Music (Original Song): Man or Muppet - Bret McKenzie
• Short Film (Animated): The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore - William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
• Short Film (Live Action): The Shore - Terry George and Oorlagh George
• Sound Editing: Transformers: Dark of the Moon - Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
• Sound Mixing: Transformers: Dark of the Moon - Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
• Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
• Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Descendants - Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
• Writing (Original Screenplay): Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen

So, will Woody show up? Will there be any big upsets? Will you actually win any money this year? We'll see.

The reason I started watching the Oscars is fairly straightforward. Every year on Oscar night as a child, my mother would flip on the television, and we'd watch the pre-show and some of the awards. I remember the year Beauty and the Beast (which would later become her favorite film, and one of mine) didn't win and we were disappointed. I remember the year that Titanic fever swept the nation. I remember there being so many of those nights. It's fair to say that this tradition (along with a movie every Friday afternoon for years) is one of the foundations of my love of the movies.

I owe that to her, and I will be thinking of her tonight.

Bigelow Wins, the Red Carpet & the Dude Abides

I am immensely happy with last night’s Academy Awards. I think people like to pick everything about the actual ceremony apart and try to make it into something it’s not (The Grammy’s), but I for one thought Baldwin and Martin were great hosts, the changes were entertaining and while I didn’t agree with some of the presenters, I agree with the films and people that were honored.

Instead of giving you a recap of what I thought about the whole 3+ hour affair I thought I’d give you the highlights of the day for me, from red carpet to credits rolling. These are the things that caught my eye and made the night memorable for me.

• George Clooney got out of his limo early & proved that he is the man everyone says he is. Instead of running through security to get on the red carpet he ran up and down the street greeting the fans that couldn’t even get in the bleachers.
  
• I loved Zoe Saldana’s dress. I may be in the minority here, but it was fun, different and very youthful. I couldn’t wear it but I would want to.
  
• I’ve decided that I don’t just want to meet Robert Downey Jr, I want to meet Susan Downey too. They were adorable on the red carpet and played off each other so well while being interviewed. I would love to work with Susan!
  
• Jake Gyllenhaal talked to Ryan Seacrest on the red carpet and when asked about his sister’s nomination gushed so much that he admitted the pocket square would be used by him if his sister ended up on stage that night.
  
• Neil Patrick Harris proved that he can pull off anything and he stole the show with an amazing opening number. I loved it right down to his glittery tux jacket.
  
• John Hughes affected an entire generation, so much so the Oscars actually did a solo tribute to him and the most memorable stars from his most memorable films took part in it.
  
• Sam Worthington wasn’t just cool enough to sit in the audience with his glasses on, he whipped them out on stage to read the teleprompter. Tell me how many other actors would be that unself-conscious?
  
• Perhaps it was unrelated, unfortunate cutting but Monique won her Oscar then they cut to Samuel L. Jackson making a not complementary face. Hmmm…
  
• Kristen Stewart proved she is completely uncomfortable with her career. She can’t do a red carpet or present without seeming angry and uncomfortable. It’s the Oscar’s honey, act like you’re glad to be there.
  
• Sandy Powell won yet another Oscar for costume and gave a shout out to all the costume designers that the Academy doesn’t recognize because they don’t see their genres or time periods as challenging.
  
• The crazy lady that interrupted the documentary short director because it was the “classy thing” for him to let her talk. The only thing classy about that was that he handled it with poise and didn’t shove her away from the mic.
  
• Ben Stiller I love you. Dressing as a Nav’i was hysterical and I loved it. Especially when he admitted that Avatar couldn’t even have been nominated for best makeup.
  
• Roger Corman won a lifetime achievement award. I could name 5-10 giant people off the top of my head that he helped start and the fact that the Academy found a way to honor Corman is huge.
  
• Robert Downey Jr. & Tina Fey presented an award together and had some of the best banter of the night – especially if you’ve ever worked with actors or writers.
  
• Jeff Bridges accepted the Oscar and proved that the Coen brothers may have helped along what was already there, but Bridges is inherently “The Dude”.
  
• Kathryn Bigelow became the first woman to win the Oscar for directing. Not only could it not have gone to a better female director, but her reaction was priceless. I missed most of what she was saying and what happened because I was in as much shock as she was. I will be writing about this in depth once I pull my thoughts together and re-watch the moment online.
  
• The Hurt Locker won best picture and Jeremy Renner and actors ran on stage and stole the moment in a great way. The three linked arms, shouted and basically grinned and laughed with joy the entire time the acceptance speech went on. Priceless.
  
• After almost looking like she was going to pass out from both her acceptance speeches Kathryn Bigelow tried to exit the stage and Steve Martin & Alec Baldwin grabbed her and kept her on stage with them to extend her moment while closing the show.